To restate it in your terms: One time out of three: Thus, this web page. And it's called the Monty Hall problem because Monty Hall was the game show host in Let's Make a Deal, where they would set up a situation very similar to the Monte Hall problem that we're about to say.

Most statements of the problem, notably the one in Parade Magazine, do not match the rules of the actual game show Krauss and Wang, The Solution First of all, I should say that this is not a rigorous mathematical analysis of this problem. Several discussants of the paper by Morgan et al.

Only one time out of three is your first choice going to be correct in the following diagrams, we'll say that your choice is the red door. Since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here, I'll explain.

Monty and Marilyn lived in Beverly Hills, Californiafrom until their deaths; Marilyn predeceased her husband by four months. As one source says, "the distinction between [these questions] seems to confound many" Morgan et al. It's just random probability, and it's not going to make a difference whether you switch or not.

Another way to understand the solution is to consider the two original unchosen doors together Adams ; Devlin; Williams ; Stibel et al. I have not changed that.

It's actually a fabulous way to think about this. The probabilities of your initial choice being correct, and the remaining choices have to sum to equal one. Then I simply lift up an empty shell from the remaining other two.

But always remember that he always offers you a choice, and he always opens a losing door.

This means that He was the recipient of the Ralph Edwards Service Award from Game Show Congress, in recognition of all the work the emcee-producer has done for charity through the years.

There is one goat you will never choose. Note that he has not just eliminated any random door, but has eliminated one of the doors which does not hide a prize.

But in showing you which of those two doors does not hide the prize, Monty Hall has told you which does: Behrends concludes that "One must consider the matter with care to see that both analyses are correct"; which is not to say that they are the same.

Monty might then open door 1 and offer the chance to switch to door 3.

The intuitive and correct answer is to expect someone else. As I can and will do this regardless of what you've chosen, we've learned nothing to allow us to revise the odds on the shell under your finger. So let's say always-- when you always switch.

Confusion and criticism[ edit ] Sources of confusion[ edit ] When first presented with the Monty Hall problem, an overwhelming majority of people assume that each door has an equal probability and conclude that switching does not matter Mueser and Granberg, And so if you switch, you're going to end up on the right answer.

Pause the video now. Think of it like this. Since this is true, I am going to use the winning strategy that applies to One analysis for one question, another analysis for the other question. You can now take advantage of this additional information. One analysis for one question, another analysis for the other question.

If you choose to make a purchase, Curiosity will get a share of the sale. Imagine that there were a million doors. Jul 23, · The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, loosely based on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall.

The problem is as follows: Suppose you're on a game. Jul 25, · The Monty Hall Problem - Steven R. Costenoble (Java-capable browser needed) A Mathematica Notebook file to download If you're still not convinced that 2/3 is the correct probability, here are two more ways to think about the problem.

Choose an explanation to the Monty Hall Problem: 1/3 vs 2/3 – Solution #1 to the Monty Hall Problem There is a 1/3 chance of the car being behind door number 1 and a. The solution to the Monty Hall Problem using Bayes Theorem. Monty Hall is back, for one last time, to host the show from the s ‘Let's Make a Deal’.

The Monty Hall problem is a well-known puzzle in probability derived from an American game show, Let’s Make a Deal. (The original s-era show was hosted by Monty Hall, giving this puzzle its name.).

The Monty Hall problem, also known as the as the Monty Hall paradox, the three doors problem, the quizmaster problem, and the problem of the car and the goats, was introduced by biostatistician Steve Selvin (a) in a letter to the journal The American Statistician. Depending on what assumptions are made, it can be seen as mathematically.

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Bayes' Theorem - Monty Hall Problem – YOU CANalytics-